Late last month I quietly released my initial electoral college prediction on this site, quietly because at the time this site wasn't really ready for launch it was still under construction. My initial projection for the electoral college was comprised of a combination of factors, including forecasts from the experts who do this for a living, polling numbers, prediction markets, and my intuition.
Last month's initial projection looked like this:
As you can see my initial projection has Vice President Joe Biden winning the election with 290 votes, 20 more than the 270 needed to win the election.
In my new projection today those base numbers pretty much stay the same I however have two changes in my prediction. I have moved Pennsylvania from tilt Democratic to lean Democratic and moved Ohio from lean Republican to tilt Republican.
For Pennsylvania, I decided to make the move because it's looking like Joe Biden is doing better with suburban voters and Biden is holding a pulling advantage around double digits at this point that of course can change but as of now, it looks fairly healthy.
As for Ohio, expert predictions have the state rated either lean Republican or toss-up I'm deciding to split the difference on that and it looks like the polling is trending towards a toss-up.
While we are still four months out and things can change drastically in those four months, the trend has remained the same for the last four months that this election is becoming more likely a Biden win. While I don't think that Trump will be blamed by voters for economic troubles, I do think that voters are not satisfied with the disastrous federal response to COVID-19, add on top of that the already high disapproval for this president and it could be a really bad night in November for the current occupant of the White House.
My next update to this prediction should be in 2 weeks